We’ve had our say. Now it is up to world leaders to deliver

We’ve had our say. Now it is up to world leaders to deliver

After attending the London Climate March yesterday, it was good to hear this morning that the UK prime minister is seeking legally binding emissions targets at the Paris conference, along with help for poorer countries.

I was lucky enough to be at the front of the London Climate March, leading the way and leading the chants, along with around 50,000 other climate change campaigners in London, who were all demanding a strong global deal on climate action at the Paris conference, which opened today. 785,000 people marched worldwide – a record number overall and a record-breaking number in 20 of the cities that took part.

The People's March for Climate, Justice and Jobs – London. 29/11/15.
London, UK. 29/11/15. Tens of thousands march through central London ahead of the Paris Climate Conference. (© Rob Pinney / Avaaz)

COP21, as the conference is known, is seen as a make-or-break conference. The last chance for the two-decades-old UN process to bring nations together to tackle what many scientists regard as the biggest single threat to humanity. Nearly 150 heads of state and government officials from  countries around the world will attend the two-week talks, which are seen as crucial if we are to stand any chance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions before it’s too late.

Countries are aiming to agree on financial support to help poor nations to cut emissions and cope with the effects of extreme weather. They also hope to set targets on limiting global emissions that would come into effect from 2020, when current commitments run out.

Legal Framework

Nobody really believes that a plan will be put in place that will lead to a world of zero emissions or one that will limit global warming to within the so-called danger level of 2C. As such, whatever happens, many will condemn the process as a failure. What is really important though, is that leaders agree a robust legal framework that will ensure that targets are improved upon on a stepped basis, as technology develops.

As the UN General Secretary pointed out in his opening speech today, the agreement must be lasting and must not need continually renegotiating. It must be a credible starting point, with a mechanism that includes five year review cycles at the very least. Crucially though, it must balance responsibilities of developed and developing countries.

The UK’s Climate Change Act is a strong domestic framework to deal with emissions and we need to see a similarly robust system at the international level.

Climate Aid

Developed countries must also keep their promise of delivering $100bn of climate aid per year to poorer countries by 2020. Ban Ki-moon has correctly called for the climate deal to include a framework for monitoring those financial flows. This money will go to helping countries adapt and strengthen their infrastructure to cope with the effects of extreme weather.

Will the climate negotiations succeed?

Elements of an agreement are slowly falling into place. Almost every country in the world, including all the biggest economies, have submitted their individual plans on how they will reduce emissions from 2020 onwards, when current comitments expire. The US and China, the two biggest emitters, made a joint announcement on their emissions, for the first time, in a marked show of unity.

They must do better than the last big summit in Copenhagen in 2009 when all that was achieved was a “political declaration”. Whilst major developed and developing countries jointly agreed emissions targets for the first time, it fell short of the formal treaty that many had hoped for.

Many things are expected to be different this time. At Copenhagen, the text of a potential deal was too unwieldy to produce a formal treaty. Whereas the text for Paris has been slimmed down to just over 20 pages, which will hopefully make it possible to get it signed off in the two weeks of the talks.

Most of the world’s biggest economies have now publicly declared they want a deal. However, at the UN talks, small and desperately poor countries have just as much say as the richest. They may not be so happy to oblige if they don’t feel they are getting fair treatment. It’s all to play for. For now, all we can do is hope.

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A global shift to 100% renewables is within sight

A year ago I started campaigning for Manchester to commit to become 100% clean by 2050. A growing number of cities, regions and even countries were committing to such a transition and I hoped the new ‘Northern Powerhouse’ could be one of them. I still do…

To meet the internationally agreed climate goal to limit global warming to below 2°C, the science is clear: take carbon emissions to zero by roughly 2070 which means you need 100% clean energy by 2050.   

At the Climate Summit in New York last September, the task given by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon was simple. Heads of States had to promise the delivery of a global action plan by 2015 and this needed to target a fully decarbonised energy sector based on 100% renewable energy by 2050. That means no new carbon put into the air by the way we power our lives. Homes, transport and businesses – everything needs to be powered by clean, renewable energy.

Is this possible? Yes. Remember we have 35 years to get there. Think of all the technology we have now that didn’t exist 35 years ago: computers, the internet, smartphones etc. We can create even more solutions that we haven’t even thought of yet.

The EU has said it will push for at least 27% of the EU’s energy to come from renewables by 2030, but that’s not enough. The G7 have said they will commit to ‘strive’ towards transformation of the energy sector by 2050, but this is too loose. We can do so much better than this when you look at the progress made already.

Since the Copenhagen climate summit 6 years ago…

In the last six years since that now infamous and disastrous Copenhagen climate summit there has been a huge amount of investment in renewable energy, spectacular growth in the amount of solar and wind generated power, with renewables now the world’s second largest source of electricity. The prospect of a renewably-powered future is now much more tangible.

In 2009, there was 1,223GW of renewable power capacity installed globally (including hydro and traditional biomass), according to REN21, a thinktank. By 2014 that had risen 28% to 1,560GW, equivalent to 780 average sized (2GW) coal power plants. That’s in just 6 years.

2013 was the first year that more renewable capacity was built than fossil and nuclear combined: 56% of the electricity generating capacity built in 2013 was renewable.

China increased the amount of renewable power it generated by more than three times as much as the rest of the world put together in 2014.

Investment in renewables grew significantly in the years following Copenhagen, according to figures from BNEF. $196Bn was invested in 2009. In 2013 it stood at $254Bn, a 30% increase.

The growth of wind and solar power has consistently outstripped projections from the influential International Energy Agency. Renewables have even grown faster than predicted by Greenpeace.

Wind Power

Global wind power capacity more than doubled between 2009 and 2014. By 2014 China had installed more than four times the wind generating power it had in 2009. India doubled its wind capacity in the same five years.

Solar Power

Global solar capacity saw even faster growth between 2009 and 2014 – growing by 91% in 2010 alone. In 2014 China had achieved a staggering 94-fold increase in solar capacity since 2009. Solar capacity grew 15-fold in the United States between 2009 and 2014, with a third of that installed in 2013/2014 alone.

And now?

The latest figures on renewable energy trends from the UN Environment Programme (Unep) reveal a striking turnaround after a period in which low oil prices and policy uncertainty pushed investment down, threatening the sector. Even though oil prices remain low, world investment, largely in solar and wind, went up by 17% to $270bn last year, reversing a two-year dip. The new generating capacity that represents is about the same as the total output of the current US nuclear system.

The cost of renewable electricity has fallen rapidly over the past six years, particularly for solar power, where cost reductions have been dramatic and unexpected. IRENA says solar PV module costs have fallen 75% since the end of 2009 and the cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV by 50% since 2010.

Of course it’s tough for politicians trained to look only to the next election cycle, but we are starting to see progress. At least 16 cities already have 100% targets. Copenhagen, San Francisco, Munich and Frankfurt were the first to commit to going 100 % Clean – Copenhagen even a lot earlier: by 2030!

Costa Rica may have relied on its very particular topography to have its energy system powered 100% by renewable energy in 2015, but it is symbolically powerful and Costa Ricans are enjoying falling energy prices. Also, the best energy systems should always be locally tailored.

Under very different circumstances, the district of Rhein-Hunsrück in the industrial giant of Germany achieved 100% renewable status and exports surplus clean energy to the grid. The €290m (£213m) it used to spend on importing energy is being turned into value for the local community by an energy system based on efficiency and local, renewable sources.

One in four UK homes now benefits from wind power, a rise of 15% on last year, and Scotland is generating enough clean energy to be used in 98% of its homes.

Solar entrepreneur Jeremy Leggett argues in his forthcoming book, The Winning of the Carbon War, that three mostly independent dynamics are at play driving the change. Firstly, the numbers no longer add up in the old fossil fuel model. The costs of new acquisitions become unmanageable in a system that feasts on debt. Secondly, costs in solar and the vital link of a green energy system, battery storage, are plummeting while the sector offers attractive, reliable rates of return to investors. The Swiss bank UBS famously predicted the rapid “extinction” of the old fossil fuel system as battery costs as much as halve over the next five years.

And, finally, there is movement internationally on climate policy. “We are now in danger of winning the carbon war,” says Leggett. ”Would I like to be running an oil company now? Defending their case is becoming untenable.”

Here are three recently reported examples of how local economies can be strengthened by transitioning to 100% renewable energy:

Frankfurt, Germany

By 2050, Frankfurt will produce 100% of its energy consumption from local and regional renewable sources bringing down its current energy import costs from €2bn a year to zero. Thanks to its public local utility which drives this transition, the city not only benefits from these savings but generates additional income in the form of revenues and tax incomes. By prioritising energy production from within the city and the surrounding region – while still being connected to the larger national grid – the money will stay in the region.

Energy efficiency measures have saved Frankfurt €100m in energy costs, a number that is projected to rise. The city has also reduced emissions by 15% between 1990 and 2012, while its economy grew by 50% for its 715,000 inhabitants.

Vancouver, Canada

One city leading the movement in North America is Vancouver. Widely recognised as the most livable city in the world, its environmental footprint is currently three times larger than it can sustain. Mayor Robertson and his team are committed to changing this, by putting the city on track to become the greenest in the world. By 2050, Vancouver will obtain 100% of the energy it uses from renewable sources and emit 80% fewer greenhouse gases than in 2007.

It is not only the environment that motivates the government to take this action; Vancouver is a great example of how climate and environmental protection, and economic growth, can complement each other. A study by Brand Finance estimates that Vancouver’s brand is valued at $31bn due to its reputation as a “green, clean and sustainable” city. Steering the city towards 100% renewable energy and focusing on local sustainability, has helped create more than 3,000 new local green jobs in only five years.

Kasese, Uganda

The district of Kasese in Uganda (of approximately 130,000 households) is radically transforming. By 2020, Kasese will supply the energy needs of its population by only renewable sources. This ambitious target will be achieved by adopting a people-centered approach, with a wide variety of renewable sources such as biomass, solar, geothermal and mini-hydroelectric technologies. This will help the region overcome health issues strongly connected to the uncontrolled use of charcoal, firewood and kerosene, the main energy sources used for cooking and domestic electricity production.

By implementing a decentralised renewable energy system in the region, several clean energy businesses have been started since 2012, creating jobs for locals. They sell solar equipment, construct solar hubs, build biogas systems, improve cook stoves and deliver mini-hydro projects. The number of businesses in the local green economy has increased from five to 55 since 2012, and at least 1,650 people have been trained in the process.

So why Manchester?

Well for starters thousands of people from Manchester have already signed our petition demanding a 100% clean energy future. We are a city region intent on achieving a better future for our children.

Significantly though, politically, Greater Manchester is perfectly placed for this. The ten local authorities have come together to create the first city-region and a new elected mayor will be appointed from 2017. This will lead to a city region with greater freedoms, which will ultimately control all public spending in Greater Manchester. With responsibility for local transport (something which is already making great strides through the expansion of the successful Metrolink tram network), along with devolved planning freedoms and control of funds for housing, Manchester will be able to control much of its own destiny.

As part of this process, 17 Priorities have been outlined as part of the Greater Manchester Strategic Framework. One of these is ‘Building our global brand’ and another is ‘Seizing the growth potential of a low carbon economy’.

The economic argument

Some countries have begun to realise the benefits. A recent German study [pdf] reveals that some €5.4bn was generated in Germany in 2012 through projects that were partially or fully owned by local investors, including citizens. Local private investments created a total of around 100,000 jobs that year in both the construction sector and operation.

It is doable – the weight of scientific opinion leaves no doubt. Professor Mark Jacobson from Stanford University has outlined a vision to power the entire United States, including the transport sector, by 100% renewables by 2050. We don’t lack the ability, we lack political will.

Taking Action

Online petitions are a growing political movement all on their own and fast becoming a proven way to make real change happen, but they are at their most powerful when they are directed at local actors by people in their community. I like the idea of a cascade of campaigns in cities and towns across the world calling for local pledges for 100% clean energy by 2050. Together we can turn our countries green from the inside out and show national politicians that climate action is possible and popular.

Cities contribute two thirds of the world’s energy use and 70% of carbon pollution, so the commitments our mayors make has a major global impact. Getting our towns & cities to promise a clean, sustainable future is an important step towards stopping runaway climate change, and together we can make it happen. That’s why I created a petition to specifically get Manchester to commit to 100% clean energy.

The more of us who take action, the more likely it is our leaders will listen. Please sign the petition here and share as widely as possible.