The decoupling debate, one year on: the global picture, and Manchester.

Source: The decoupling debate, one year on: the global picture, and Manchester.

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Why we must fight the Tories on every front – Reason #1 The Economy

Why we must fight the Tories on every front – Reason #1 The Economy

By Jon Crooks

It’s the economy stupid!

We need an end to austerity. No more cuts! It’s time to look at alternative ways of clearing the deficit whilst investing in public services and infrastructure, in a way that doesn’t punish disabled people, the unemployed and the low paid. The Tories have controlled the debate up to now. Making out that it’s all about cuts in public spending vs. higher taxes. But that’s all built on lies. To begin with we need to expose the truth about money!

The money supply

Virtually all money today is created as bank debt. As painful as it is, everybody needs to understand this. Go to the Positive Money website and start by watching one of their videos then read a bit. It’s fundamental to everything. And the problem with this method of creating money is that we can no longer take on more debt. The money supply has shrunk along with our inability to borrow new money into existence. Quantitative Easing (QE) attempted to re-inflate the money supply by giving money to banks to create more debt, but that policy failed.

What’s the solution?

It’s time to try injecting some debt-free money – central bank-created money – directly into the real economy. The Government can issue new money outright to cover the budget deficit or spend it into existence by investing in new housing, energy, transport and digital projects. Corbyn’s team call it “quantitative easing for people instead of banks” (PQE). The investments in the real economy would be made through a National Investment Bank set up to invest in new infrastructure and in the hi-tech innovative industries of the future. The Greens too have been advocating this approach for some time.

So why won’t the Tories consider this option?

As Ellen Brown, author of ‘Web of Debt’ explains:

“This is a taboo concept in mainstream economics because it cuts out the private sector bond traders from their dose of corporate welfare, which unlike other forms of welfare like sickness and unemployment benefits etc. has made the recipients rich in the extreme.” Also, “it takes away the ‘debt monkey’ that is used to clobber governments [such as Greece] that seek to run larger fiscal deficits.”

In other words, it’s about power. Controlling the money supply through debt, the elite are able to control the whole global economic system. The financial sector is at the heart of everything. Hedge funds fund The Tory Party directly. The big corporations who benefit from this system pay millions through lobbying firms to protect their interests: an environment of low corporate tax (we have one off the lowest thresholds in the world) and minimal labour and environmental regulation.

And so the financial sector, the big corporations, the Tory politicians and the media moguls conspire together, all getting richer and richer together, dining out on their power, whilst laughing at the rest of us who are paying for it. It stinks!

An alternative economy that doesn’t put profit before people

We need to re-balance our economy, which under the Tories and previous Labour governments, has been increasingly built on debt and the financial services sector. Someone needs to stand up to Osborne’s chums in the City of London who have had it their own way for two long. Instead of an economy that works for the richest in society, built on debt, foreign investment and the import of goods, making us vulnerable to the ups and downs of the global financial system, our economy needs to work for us all. A new monetary system and a national investment bank that will invest in productive economic activity to rebuild our manufacturing industries and make us more self-reliant. We need to invest in public services, new technology and renewable energy to provide decent jobs for everybody.

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Marchers protest the Tory Party conference in Manchester on 4 October 2015

Globalisation

Trade doesn’t have to be a bad thing, but unregulated, unrestricted global trade is very damaging and this form of untamed global market approach may have had it’s time anyway. There is an argument emerging that we have reached peak globalisation.

Whilst globalisation has led to cheaper goods, it has been at a huge cost to the environment and workers rights. Whilst we have introduced protections for workers and the environment in Britain in the past, we have since outsourced our manufacturing industries to Asia where more limited protections exist. In doing so, we have outsourced the damage we cause. Things are cheaper for a reason! I’d like to see a British government brave enough to introduce restrictions on trade (at least from outside the EU) whilst at the same time investing in British industry in order to rebuild our manufacturing industry and develop new modern technologies, to give better balance to our economy. We need to develop a culture that encourages everyone to buy local or at least buy British and we need a government that will support that.

TTIP

The problem we have is that the Tories represent big business and so when we taken on the Tories we have to take on corporate power. And the biggest challenge facing us right now on that score is TTIP – a massive trade agreement currently being negotiated between the EU and the US – and it’s a threat to our climate, health and democracy.

Despite all the consultations on this huge trade deal being secret, we know that 92 per cent of those involved have been corporate lobbyists.

In their quest for profit at any cost, corporations strive for two things, new markets and deregulation. In reality, regulation is what keeps corporations, some of whom are richer and more powerful than countries, in check. The move in the US and the UK to deregulate financial markets was one of the main causal factors of the global financial crash. Regulation, however inconvenient to big businesses, has a crucial role in democracy and economic stability. It provides safeguards against exploitation and protects hard earned rights of the most vulnerable in society.

Of particular concern is the investor protection clause, known as ISDS. This allows corporations to potentially sue governments. For example, a US health care provider could secure a contract to run an NHS hospital, but if the public objected and the government intervened on our behalf, they could be sued for the company’s loss of earnings. Running a hospital on the cheap will make more profit but cost more lives. Under TTIP, it’s the profit, not safety, that matters. There are legitimate concerns that this deal could make NHS privatisation irreversible.

Also, this wouldn’t take place in a traditional court. There is no judge. Instead the decision would be taken by three well-paid lawyers sitting behind closed doors.
Companies have successfully used ISDS to challenge environmental protection in past trade agreements. For example, in 2009 a Swedish energy company sued Germany for €1.4 billion because Hamburg tried to stop it from polluting the River Elbe. The case was only settled after Germany backed down.

If TTIP goes ahead, the reach of ISDS will increase tenfold. This must be stopped!

TTIP Share image Im saying NO to TTIP

 

Action Now:

Sign the petition to stop the TTIP trade deal

Join thee Positive Money campaign

How YOU can keep the economics ecosystem healthy!

Economics as though human civilisation matters

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By Dave Sanderson

If it’s about production or consumption, making money or saving it, it’s economics.

There’s no-end of different organisations, groups of people and individuals involved in this, they all interact and rely on one another, so it’s a sort of ecosystem. Investors, workers, businesses, governments, banks, traders, reporters, merchants and consumers are each vital in their own way. So too is the earth as it provides the room, the air and the minerals without which none of these types of people could survive and carry out their activities.

In this note, I’ll try to show why this is a useful way to view the vital and often misunderstood topic of economics and highlight why some radical changes are needed if the ecosystem is to remain healthy. And it is vital that it does; ‘It’s the economy, stupid’, as Bill Clinton said when asked what would determine the outcome of the US Presidential election in 1992. And economics will determine whether you and your family have a prosperous future or a poor and chaotic one. Pay attention!

Ecosystems are never static; there’s always stuff going on. When you learn about ecosystems at school, you get to understand the carbon and nitrogen cycles and the flows of nutrients and energy. A healthy ecosystem is rich in species yet stable over time. You hear about the destabilising effects of pollution, changes in food availability and over exploitation by man.

There’s stuff going on in the economics system too; businesses starting while others fail, stock markets rising or falling, innovations disrupting old ways of doing things, growing populations, political shifts, different ideas….and much more besides. There are flows of money, materials and labour, the ebb and flow of demand, the disruption caused by war or famine and the more subtle effects of interest rates and regulations.

People study both economics and natural ecosystems. Whereas the functioning of a lake or forest can be studied scientifically, with experiments to test out ideas, that is not really practical with economics. There’s no equivalent of a placebo or a double blind trial! Instead, there are a number of ‘schools’ of economists, each with their own ideas on how to make the economy work best. The dominant school of economics in the West at the moment, especially popular with right wing politicians and global businesses, is free-market or neo-classical economics. This assumes consumers are individual, logical consumers… which of course we are not. We often buy on emotion and are heavily influenced by marketing, by our peers and by whatever is most popular. While there are certainly circumstances when it is right to say ‘ the market will decide’, there are many occasions when a totally free market is not acceptable; most countries outlawed buying and selling people long ago, for example, whilst regulations ensure pollution is limited and packaged food is safe to eat.

So both the theory and the practice of economics need to evolve, as circumstances change, just as ecosystems do. So what are the major factors that are bearing down on our economy now and which will cause change for us all, whether we like it or not? Here are half a dozen really big (and scary) ones to think about:

  • Global population growth. More workers, more consumers, so a bigger global economy. But this cannot go on forever. There must be a limit on how many people our planet can carry, sustainably. At current levels of consumption, the 2015 population of 7.3bn is using 1.5 earth’s worth of resources, so a population of 9.7bn (as predicted by the UN for 2050) will need approx 2 earths. We only have one…..
  • Resource depletion. We will not run out of iron or aluminium but some scarce materials, such as those used to make touch screens in smart phones could well run out, and soon. Substitutes may be found but we cannot easily replace soils exhausted by intensive agriculture or fresh water pumped dry by irrigation and huge cities.
  • Climate change. Global warming is not a belief; it is a scientifically proven fact. It will lead to crop failures and thus food shortages, the flooding of low lying land and thus mass migration. We must leave most known stocks of coal, oil and gas in the ground if we are to avoid runaway climate change and dire implications for human civilisation.
  • Increasing inequality. Research shows that more equitable societies are generally more stable and happy, yet inequality is rapidly increasing, here and globally. This appears to be a side effect of free market economics.
  • Globalisation / global interconnectivity. Another idea that big business and powerful individuals are keen on, as it enriches them. Yet it means that a problem in one country (such as the collapse of the American sub-prime mortgage market) can rapidly cause problems elsewhere (the 2008 global financial crisis).
  • Ever faster innovation. There are more scientists, technologists and innovators than ever (as the population is bigger). So change is happening ever faster and becoming more difficult to stay on top of. Even for big businesses. IT and artificial intelligence in particular have the potential to seriously disrupt current ways of doing things, with significant but as yet unknown economic implications.

Now these are hard to think about. They always seem just over the horizon; too difficult to deal with today so let’s leave them for another day, shall we? But that just won’t do. The sooner they are tackled, the better. They may represent huge threats but there are also giant opportunities with realistic ways of each of us helping bring them about. Let’s think about a few ways our economics ecosystem could adapt to handle these and what part each of us can play. We don’t want anything going extinct, do we, especially us?

  • Stop human population growth and then let it gently decline. Coercion is unethical and no one wants to tell people how many kids they can have. This is about female empowerment and a culture shift. Aid programmes can help with female education and provision of contraception in those places where it is not available. And families come to realise they can have a better life if they just decide not to have more than one or two kids.
  • Consume less. Do we really want to work harder and harder so we can buy more and more stuff in order to show off? A change of mindset, from ‘keeping up with the Jones’ to being content with ‘sufficient’ while having more time to relax with family and friends. Make the car last another couple of years and don’t buy that extra pair of shoes you don’t really need…. To help this along, Government and media should stop focusing on GDP growth and instead use measures of well-being. As they say ‘Tell me how you will measure me and I’ll tell you how I will behave’.
  • Recycle more. Increasingly products are being designed for reuse or recycling and we should all support this ‘circular’ economy.
  • Renewable energy. We need to keep fossil fuels in the ground so we should all swop to electricity tariffs that are 100% renewable. If we can, fit PV panels on the roof. Don’t object to local renewable projects; invest in them instead! Insulate the house and drive economically. Make sure your savings, pension pot or investments are not being used to support fossil fuel extraction. Government should put a price on carbon and integrate this into the tax system.
  • Think carefully about who you vote for. It is in everybody’s interest (even the rich) to live in a content, stable society so support a party strong on social justice. If the poor become less poor, they buy more and so support business and pay tax.
  • Play a part in your local community. Shop locally and buy local produce. Seek ways to make your locality more self reliant and sustainable. Big isn’t always best and many decisions are best made at a local level rather than nationally.
  • Stay informed and abreast of new technologies. Don’t blindly accept them; they all have pros and cons. Understand what they mean for you and us and use them accordingly.

So there ARE ways of keeping our economics ecosystem healthy and keeping the three horsemen of the apocalypse at bay. If our existing politicians won’t or can’t put these ideas effectively into place, quickly enough, it is down to us. If we each do a little bit and tell others about it, we can do it. The power of social media is proven. There are a billion of us on Facebook already. Far more have phones. Some of the 7bn are little children, others are old or poor. So maybe 2 bn need to make changes. Get changing what YOU do, so you can lead by example.  Convince 2 or 3 others, get it trending and soon most of the economic actors worldwide will be doing things differently… and the ecosystem will be evolving nicely.

The Flailing, Failing Radical Right

Better Nature: books and commentary by Geoff Davies

The current disarray of the Abbott Government may mark the end of a decades-long experiment in radical social engineering. The experiment has yielded deepening social divisions, an antiquated, colonial-style economy and little capacity to deal with the dramatic challenges of the near future.

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Let them starve in the name of ‘fairness’

By Jon Crooks

Britain is stalked by hunger caused by low pay, growing inequality, a harsh benefits sanctions regime and social breakdown. Yet failed Labour candidate, Will Straw, in an open letter along with 7 other Labour Party candidates who failed to win their seats at the election, is today quoted as saying…

“Despite Labour’s vocal campaigning, people rarely wanted to talk about the bedroom tax unless they were directly affected. Instead, they wanted to know what Labour would do about the family down the street on benefits who’d ‘never done an honest day’s work in their life’ or why some families jumped up the housing ladder. It might make us feel uncomfortable and it might be unfair, but the public thought that we were on the side of people who don’t work.”

This is what we’re up against. Some families can’t afford decent food and others are so poor they can’t afford to switch on the gas. Many families don’t even have the ability to make their own food because the kitchen of their private rented flat contains only a microwave. That’s before we even consider how the number of people living on the streets is on the increase.

The government needs to be confronted over the prevalence of homelessness, food banks and the scale of deep poverty in the UK, but because of the diversive rhetoric that has turned people against the poor of this country, with lots of help from our poisonous right wing press, we’re facing an uphill battle.

Our government and the corporate press rattle on about getting people into work, but they ignore the fact that for some, this just isn’t possible no matter how hard they try. Yet they are punished rather than helped.

Benefit-related problems are the single biggest reason for reference to food banks. From April 2000 to June 2014, a total of 3,063,098 people received an average of 2.04 sanctions each. Furthermore, the cost of food, fuel and rent has increased since 2003, in a trend unprecedented in post-war Britain. These fundamental changes in the relative prices in budgets of food, utilities and rent have blown sky-high the comfortable post-war assumption that our wages system and our benefit system guarantees a minimum which most of us would regard as tolerable.

The stats available from The Trussell Trust are staggering and yet Food Banks now go largely unreported.

We also have more working poor than at any other period of history. Welfare isn’t just for the unemployed. And The Tories are making the working poor worse off too by reducing working tax credits.

It’s time to look again at the state of our country and to review the fundamental values that led to the creation of our welfare state. As a G7 country, there is no excuse. We should be moving towards a hunger-free Britain. Why doesn’t the state take over distribution of free food to those who need it? Why can’t we provide accomodation for all those who need it? It can be done, if there was the political will. 

It isn’t like we can’t afford it, despite what Cameron and Osborne will have you believe. How about we make some large reductions in the £93 billion of corporate tax relief and subsidies instead of making £12 billion of cuts to welfare.

As Jeremy Corbyn recently put it:

“Austerity is a political choice not an economic necessity. There is money available – after all, the government has just given tax breaks to the richest 4% of households.”

At least one of our elected representatives can see the truth for what it is.

This article was edited with a correction on 1st August 2015.

Understanding Money Creation as Debt

By Jon Crooks

www.public-domain-image.com (public domain image)
http://www.public-domain-image.com (public domain image)

Banks create new money whenever they make loans. 97% of the money in the economy today is created by banks, whilst just 3% is created by the government. So does this mean the banks are rolling in it whilst a large proportion of the population are suffering through austerity?

In early 2014, The Bank of England published a report explaining how money is created and how the flow of money is controlled. Contrary to popular belief money is not issued by The Bank of England, it is created when a private bank, like those on our high streets, makes a loan to a person or business.

But this doesn’t represent free money for the bank in question – and this is where your head explodes – because money is ‘destroyed’ when the loan or mortgage is repaid. And of course these are usually just numbers on a screen, not real money, as in cash, but the principle is the same.

The bank only gets to keep the money it makes in interest. That is the bank’s income, out of which it must pay running costs such as staff costs and property costs and of course the interest it pays you on your savings if you are lucky enough to have any.

All this of course is no doubt an eye-opener to those who believed the old theory still held true, that a bank lends money that already exists in the form of bank deposits or money borrowed from other banks.

This system of money creation as debt is how the modern economy works. The question is, should we be worried?

First, you need to get your head around the fact that money has to be produced all the time by someone. The analogy often used is that the economy is an engine and money is the oil that you put in it to keep all the moving parts working properly. Without it, the engine will seize up.

So does it matter who is creating the money in the first place?

The Green Party for example want to bring this process under state control. But how money is created and pumped into the economy is less important than how it is controlled and there are controls in place already. Banks face limits on how much they can lend based on three main principles:

1) Market forces constrain lending because individual banks have to be able to lend profitably in a competitive market and have to take steps to mitigate the risks with lending. For example, they must be careful who they lend to, how much they lend and under what circumstances; this is the fundamental principle of credit risk – the bank must be confident that they will nearly always be repaid in full to protect their profits. The regulators play a role here too in assessing whether individual banks have sufficient safeguards in place;

2) Money creation is also constrained by demand – households and businesses must want the money in the first place;

3) The ultimate constraint on money creation, in theory, is what we refer to as monetary policy.

Monetary Policy is how the state attempts to control the economy by manipulating interest rates.

If the money supply grows too fast, the rate of inflation will increase, products and services become too expensive, too quickly, wages can’t keep up and the currency loses its value, so the state increases interest rates. This encourages saving and discourages borrowing, hence less money is created by way of loans and mortgages, less money is spent and inflation reduces again – in theory.

In the UK, Gordon Brown as Chancellor handed over the power to set interest rates to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of The Bank of England (BoE). Whilst the BoE has faced accusations of lack of transparency, the idea was that it removes political influence from the decision-making process of setting interest rates, which in principle is a sound idea and should have got us away from ‘boom and bust’ by virtue of the fact that politicians wouldn’t play with interest rates in the run up to an election in order to win votes.

So what about the flip side, when the economy isn’t doing so well?

If the growth of money supply is slowed too much by banks reducing lending (as happened during and after the financial crisis of 2008), economic growth may slow (or the economy may even fall into recession) and deflation can also be a consequence, so interest rates are lowered to encourage borrowing. This is supposed to increase the money supply and get the economy going again. But following the financial downturn we had record low interest rates and yet the recovery was still very slow. This led to an additional measure known as Quantative Easing (QE).

As the banks were creating too little money to get the economy going again (and this could have been the banks being too risk averse in the new climate of heavier regulation and greater scrutiny – or people and businesses being too cautious to borrow – or a mixture of both), and as the BoE had already lowered interest rates as low as they could go (0.5% is considered to be the so-called effective lower bound), the BoE sought to provide further stimulus to the economy through QE. This is a process of buying non-bank assets such as pension fund or insurance company assets, through the creation of money. There is a common misconception here that this involved giving banks ‘free money’, whereas they only acted as go-betweens and didn’t benefit at all.

So how does this tie in with austerity? Does this throw the theoretical basis for austerity out the window?

Anthropologist David Graeber made this argument in a piece written for the Guardian in March 2014.

He made the point that the central bank could print as much money as it wishes (as it did through QE), but in reality of course it can’t print too much. This is why independent central banks exist in the first place. If governments could print money themselves, they would surely put out too much of it, and the resulting inflation would throw the economy into chaos. Institutions such as the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve were created to carefully regulate the money supply to prevent inflation. This is why they are forbidden to directly fund the government, but instead fund private economic activity that the government merely taxes.

It is crucial to understand all this to understand why the government can’t simply create more money to pay off the national debt or build more hospitals.

In the modern economy, the government is just another borrower like you and me.

The crux of Graeber’s argument is this: The real limit on the amount of money in circulation is not how much the banks are willing to lend, but how much government, firms, and ordinary citizens, are willing to borrow. He argues that government spending is the main driver in all this.

This is true to an extent. Government borrowing, spent on public works, increases the flow of money, which increases economic activity, which leads to more tax revenue, which allows the government to pay down its debt and then borrow more and the cycle begins again. This is the basic principle of Keynesian Economics.

So the point here is that the problem isn’t the way in which money supply works; that’s just a means to an end. Yes, there are other ways to do this, which are explored more below. Actually, the real problem is the government’s ideological reluctance to borrow to spend and then to tax to recoup. Instead, George Osborne insists on cutting borrowing, cutting spending and cutting taxes on the assumption that lower taxes will drive greater activity in the private sector and boost the economy that way.

In Osborne’s mind everybody then benefits from increased prosperity, or so the theory goes. This is ‘trickle down economics’. A theory that has been utterly discredited by the growing inequality seen the world over the past few decades; ever since this brand of economics, now commonly referred to as neo-liberalism, took precedence.

This failure of government policy should be the focus, not how cash is pumped into the economy.

Blaming the Banks

The commercial banks as a group increased the money supply by 2.5 times between 1997 and 2007 by lending it into existence, and created a housing price bubble in the process as much of the money went into providing cheap mortgages to anybody and everybody.

When the bubble burst, a recession followed because people and governments were trying to pay down their debts, and so taking money out of the economy. Quantitive Easing was seen as a way of maintaining the money supply, otherwise the recession would probably have been a lot worse.

Of course, in this respect the banks were directly to blame for the financial crisis, but it is a bit like blaming a child for eating too many sweets when left alone in a sweet shop. Banks are private enterprises, motivated by profit, and if insufficiently regulated, they will run a mock

The real culprit once again is neo-liberalism. The deregulation of the financial sector in the 80s and 90s is widely recognised as having lead to the excessive risk taking by the banks that preceded and led to the crash.

We need to improve that regulation again and that is happening – though we need to make sure full banking reform is implemented, with no half measures. Given half a chance, Osborne will start to backtrack, just like he has with the bank levy.

Positive Money

Others seek a more radical approach to reforming the banking system. Following a campaign by an organisation called Positive Money, The Green Party adopted some of its principles. One of these is that…

“all national currency (both in cash and electronic form) would be created, free of any associated debt, by a National Monetary Authority (NMA) that is accountable to Parliament.”

The Greens worry that the size of our money supply – the total amount of money in circulation – is dependent upon millions of separate commercial lending decisions by banks.

But this view is a little jaundiced because for a bank to make a loan there has to be demand for that loan from a customer. Bankers don’t walk the streets offering money to bemused passers by. The individual or business approaches the bank and requests a loan for a specific purpose. As such, the money supply is dependent on millions of customers and businesses all acting independently. Democracy in action surely?

The Positive Money and Green Party approach is based on the fact the we need more money and less debt. But all modern money is an IOU. It isn’t backed with gold anymore. A dollar bill or a pound note is just a promise to pay something. Money is debt!

If the Bank of England prints a £5 note it has created a liability/asset pair. The BoE can print as many as it likes and it won’t be any richer. Just like I can write out an IOU for a million pounds, or a million of a new invented currency, and still be as poor as I am.

Money is debt to the issuer and an asset to the holder. If the UK paid off its National Debt it would have to recall all banknotes and bonds. No-one in the UK would have any money! Brits would have to switch to some other currency.

The National debt isn’t like a debt for a house or a car. It’s just an accounting relationship. Neither the lenders (everyone who holds £ sterling) nor the borrowers (the UK government) would ever want this so-called debt to be repaid. Why would they? It is what it is and not the big scary monster that many politicians would have you believe.

Positive Money and The Greens think the Bank of England should only be directing loans to productive activity. But this runs into the classic problem of central planning…

…why should a central planner (the Bank of England or a newly created MPA) know better than individuals what the proper volume and direction of lending is?

One virtue of our present system is that it allows individuals to decide how much to borrow and for what and thus makes use of fragmentary, dispersed knowledge about the best amount and direction of lending.

Positive Money correctly describes the way bank lending works, but they ignore the impact on savings, and therefore tell only half the story. The relationship between debt and savings is fundamental to our monetary system. The other side of debt is savings. For every debt there are equivalent savings, so across the monetary system as a whole debt and savings are equal.

Capital Constraints

Still with me? I’m amazed! I’m boring myself now, but hang on in there if you can. Capital constraints are another way to control how much banks lend. Under the present system bank lending is capital constrained, not reserve constrained. How much credit a bank can create is governed by the ratio of shareholders’ funds and retained earnings.

Each new loan drains an amount of capital proportionate to its risk weighted amount. Banks can only lend within their capital ratios. In the run up to the financial crash the capital ratios were much lower than they are now and were widely ignored anyway. Now capital requirements are much higher, which limits lending, and hopefully regulators are being tougher about enforcing them.

Regulators are also trying to move towards constraining leverage as well, which is the ratio of capital to deposits. As each loan creates an equal deposit, forcing banks to restrict their leverage would also have the effect of limiting lending.

Positive Money and The Green Party would like to change this. In effect their proposal is to introduce reserve constraints on lending: they want banks to obtain reserves in advance of lending and only lend up to the limit of those reserves. They also want to force all banks to obtain reserves only from term deposits or from central bank liquidity: current accounts would be excluded, and banks would not be allowed to lend to each other. The MPC or MPA would be tasked with making sure the Bank of England created enough money to fund lending without increasing inflation.

But how are they supposed to forecast lending needs versus inflationary pressures without resorting to clairvoyance?

Conversely, the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB)’s proposal for bank reform envisages significantly increasing capital requirements, particularly for systemically-important banks with retail operations. The ICB rejected Positive Money’s proposals for bank reform on the grounds that they would be unnecessarily restrictive of credit. Instead, they proposed capital ratios for large banks that would go beyond the levels previously recommended by regulators.

Predictably, the banks objected to the amount of capital they have been asked to raise, on the grounds that it would hinder economic recovery.

These tighter regulations no doubt have reduced the appetite or ability of the banks to lend post crash and during the recession (as Vince Cable and The Daily Mail kept reminding us), but tighter regulations were necessary to ensure we don’t have a repeat of the financial crisis.

There is no doubt that bank reform was and continues to be necessary. There is also no doubt that it is and will continue to be painful, not only for banks themselves but also for their customers, both borrowers and savers. Savers are receiving poor returns on their investments. Borrowers are finding it harder to get credit and are facing higher interest rate margins and charges.

The problem with Positive Money and there alternative banking system is we just don’t need such radical and potentially dangerous reform.

Our banking ills are remediable by other, safer policies that won’t bring the whole economy to a grinding halt:

  • Banks tend to take on too much risk? Insist upon higher capital or liquidity requirements. This is already happening.
  • There’s too much “speculative” mortgage lending? Impose quantitative limits.
  • House prices are too high? Build more houses (especially affordable homes) and impose Loan To Value and affordability restrictions and rent controls
  • “Productive” firms are starved of finance? Create a state investment bank.

The Deficit

This article wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the deficit. This is the difference between the present value of the government’s commitments to cover its outgoings (such as state pensions and running the NHS) and the present value of its tax revenues. This difference is undoubtedly significant, at close to six times our national income.

But this has largely nothing to do with government borrowing and the creation of money other than the cost of finance i.e. the interest the government pays on our national debt, which forms part of those outgoings alongside paying for the NHS and welfare etc.

This is a problem in Europe too of course. Greece is at the epicenter of Europe’s so called ‘debt crisis’. The term debt crisis in particular is misleading here though as it is more of a deficit crisis. The Greek problem first came to light in October 2009 when global financial markets were still reeling from the financial crisis and Greece announced that it had been understating its deficit figures for years, raising alarms about the soundness of the country’s finances.

Suddenly, Greece was shut out by the private banks, as it was considered too high risk, such was the size of its borrowing and budget deficit. By the spring of 2010, it was veering toward bankruptcy, which threatened to set off a new financial crisis.

In order to protect the Euro, the now notorious Troika of The International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission stepped in with a funding package, but with it imposed terms – higher taxes, economic reforms and austerity. They had to otherwise nothing would change and they would never get their money back!

Unfortunately it hasn’t worked and there is no doubt now that five years on and the Greek economy is on the brink. The only sensible solution now is surely debt forgiveness (also known as debt relief) – this simply means writing off the debt to allow the country to recover, but the Troika are not budging.

So why did countries build up such budget deficits?

According to a number of academics, the fiscal imbalances, or deficits, are a consequence of public spending pressures that we face as the baby boom generation reaches retirement age and life expectancy continues its upward trend. Many countries are facing similar problems. The UK deficit is high relative to our US and European counterparts, but the Greeks situation is made far worse because financial institutions lost faith in the country as a borrower. The UK and Greece are very different beasts though.

Our borrowing costs are low and we are viewed as safe borrowers by the banks because the markets have confidence in the UK economy, whereas the bank’s have no confidence in Greece and its finances. The UK is considered a safe heaven because investors are reassured that the Bank of England will buy up bonds (government loans) in an event of any sell off. Also, because we are not in the Euro we can devalue our currency to increase exports. Finally, UK bonds are attractive because we haven’t defaulted on our debt for over 300 years.

So if our government finances are not such a mess, why are The Tories imposing such harsh austerity?

Austerity is used as justification for a smaller state to gain lower taxes. It’s also argued that austerity was used to paint Labour as a party that can not be trusted with the country’s finances again. This is how The Tories won a second term because people vote out of fear. As everybody knows, elections are won and lost on economic credibility. Hence, as people believed the myth that Labour created the mess and The Tories were cleaning it up, Labour wouldn’t be trusted with power again.

Other solutions to dealing with the deficit

It’s not to suggest that the UK Deficit should be ignored, but there are many calling for a fairer, more measured approach. There are clear choices, which don’t even get debated in mainstream politics and the media. On the one hand, we could increase income taxes, National Insurance contributions or consumption taxes such as VAT and fuel duty. On the other, we can take the currently favored option of drastically cutting public spending.

What this really comes down to is which groups in society should bear most of the burden – low-paid workers and the unemployed who rely most on the welfare state, the NHS and other support services provided by any decent modern society, or should the wealthy bear more of the cost by paying a little more tax, or at least by paying some tax? Let’s face it, we lose billions in revenue from tax dodging corporations and high net worth individuals every year.

As a recent Guardian report uncovered…

“In the financial year 2012-13, the government spent £58.2bn on subsidies, grants and corporate tax benefits. It took just £41.3bn in corporation tax receipts.

In 2012, Amazon was attacked by MPs on parliament’s public accounts committee for avoiding UK tax. Yet in the same period, the online retailer was awarded £16.5m in grants by the administrations of Scotland and Wales to help build distribution centres. To link the Wales plant to the transport network, the Welsh assembly built the mile-long “Ffordd Amazon road” at an additional cost of £3m.”

This ‘Corporate Welfare’ is a blatant transfer of taxpayers money to large corporate businesses.

The Tories like to remind us is that movements towards higher corporation tax or tougher enforcement would likely deter investment in the UK, even by those corporations who are willing to pay their fair share, as it might be interpreted as a signal that further regulations will follow in the future, making it more difficult to do business in the UK.

But our Corporate Tax levy, at 20%, is lower than the global average and lower than the EU average. It is much lower than in France and Germany and half that of the US; and were giving away even more than we take in tax by way of direct handouts.

Our government is so obsessed with attracting big business that it imposes punitive cuts in spending to balance the books whilst subsidising big business. And these cuts are being made at a level and pace that cannot be justified. The fast pace of fiscal adjustment that George Osborne has instigated doesn’t aim to spread the pain. He wants instant results, so that he can take credit for re-balancing the books and shrink the state and lower taxes in line with Tory ideology. The result is that the burden per person is much larger, and the economic pain for individuals correspondingly greater.

Does it work?

It hasn’t worked in Greece where austerity policies have led to unemployment rates of 28% nationally, without reducing the debt or providing the economic growth it promised.

So, what should be done?

At the very least we need to have a public debate about how to deal with the deficit issue, rather than simply accepting the path chosen by the main political parties and the European and International financial institutions imposing austerity.

Is it time to consider a different approach with a higher proportion of GDP being spent on government services; perhaps 45% as is the case in Germany. We can’t continue to roll over for big business or give up trying to collect corporate taxes because it’s too hard. Instead, we need to see rich individuals and multinational companies paying their fair share of taxes.

Thomas Picketty suggests that a tax on capital instead, or as well as, income could not only provide fiscal returns, and hence reduce the fiscal imbalance, but would have other benefits also. The tax burden would fall heaviest on the “super rich” – those most able to afford the tax and who are the section of the populace that has benefitted most from the economy. The tax, depending on what tax rate is selected, would also go some way towards reversing the polarity of wealth which has been such a feature of recent decades.

The concept of taxing capital fills the richest 1% with horror and has prompted an outpouring of misleading arguments against Picketty, and regrettably these arguments hold sway to our political leaders who are under the control of the 1% by virtue of their control of the media and the lobbying groups.

As well as reducing inequality we need to live sustainably and our current requirement of needing the resources of three planet Earths is already causing massive disruptions that will rapidly reach catastrophic proportions. If we really want to talk about balancing the books, the truth is that we need to take a look at what our fair share of the Earth’s natural resources is and set ourselves on course to really live within our means.

There is no economy on a dead planet

  

Published on 30th April 2015 on The News Hub

Our current economic model, commonly referred to as neo-liberalism, now dominates every corner of the earth. Thatcher and Reagan won. They sold us on an ideology of competition in every aspect of life. They began the process of removing as many barriers to competition as possible. They crushed unions, stripped away regulation there to protect workers, consumers and the environment we live in, all in the name of increasing competition. This ethos of competition now drives a large part of our human behaviour. We don’t think like communities or even as a unified nation of people any more. It’s dog eat dog, survival of the fittest. The real tragedy is that unfettered competition is supposed to benefit us by increasing choice and cutting bureaucracy, but in reality it has done the opposite. Big business is getting bigger and more powerful at the expense of small independent traders that provide real choice and originality. Real choice has been replaced by the monotony of large chain stores, restaurants and coffee shops and personal service has been replaced by call centres and self service via the internet as businesses get bigger by cutting costs.

Our transport, communications and energy infrastructure has been sold off to big business, so now our governments are left impotent when it comes to tackling global problems like climate change. In short, they’re no longer in charge. Our democracy is a sham. So much power has been handed over to the private sector that our politicians are powerless to act. Or so it seems. 

Unwilling to interfere with the market to install the infrastructure necessary to quickly switch our energy supply to clean renewable sources. Unwilling to interfere with the free market to put in the infrastructure to pave the way for a switch to electric cars. But hang on, don’t we provide millions in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry every year? And what about the deal with Eon to build and run the new Hinkley nuclear power station? Huge subsidies proposed, which has now led to a legal challenge by one of our fellow EU members.

It’s clear therefore that it isn’t just about ideology and an unwillingness to interfere with the ‘free market’, our problems are amplified by greed, power and vested interests. How many government ministers have links to the fossil fuel industry and the big energy companies? How many of their friends and supporters are wealthy landowners who benefit from agricultural subsidies? Those in power support privatisation because it is a transfer of public money to private interests. From the 99% to the 1%. They do this because they believe in a ruling elite and they want to maintain this status quo. Growing inequality? They simply don’t care.

Globalisation and neo-libralism are not compatible with securing a safe and stable planet for the future. The pursuit of continuous economic growth at the expense of all else can’t continue indefinitely. We can’t continue to base our economic system on competition at a time when we need collaboration to deliver a safe and secure future for ourselves. Tell me, how can we expect over 200 nation states to agree on a way to limit CO2 emissions whilst simultaneously competing with each other for business; the same business that is producing the CO2 in the first place based on a competitive market economy that only services to drive up consumption? We can’t. 

Is change possible?

There is certainly a growing number calling for a change to the economic system. It probably started with the Occupy movement, which has now been joined by a growing grassroots environmental movement. The problem is that whilst we know what we want, we don’t know how to get there. Politically, many on the left will vote Green this time around, but will that be enough? The best we can hope for is a few seats in parliament and perhaps a little more influence on the Labour Party if they form a minority government with the support of the Left. 

The problems with UK politics run deep. Most people can’t think outside of the existing political orthodoxy that is represented by the three main parties and the corporate media because it’s not debated and reported on in mainstream channels, and most people vote how they’ve always voted anyway. That’s if they vote at all. Only 65% voted in the 2010 General Election and most of those votes were meaningless in our First Past the Post system, where only people in ‘marginal seats’ affect the outcome. It’s a dire thing to admit, but our democracy is not democratic enough to be relied upon to drive the real change we need. 

After this election and its aftermath is over there are 3 things that need addressing: 1) we need constitutional reform – a new voting system based on proportional representation, regional devolution and an elected 2nd chamber of parliament; 2) we need to free the press and media from corporate ownership and vested interests; and 3) reform party funding to make it fair and equitable and out of the grasp of corporate power.

We might then finally begin the journey that closes the gap between the country we have now and the country and world that most people would surely prefer.